USDJPY is on the verge of explosion. What will the Bank of Japan decide?

The USDJPY rate is rising for the third consecutive trading session, with buyers aiming to test the 150.45 resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 18 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Investors are awaiting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision
• Experts expect the BoJ to leave monetary policy unchanged
• USDJPY forecast for 18 March 2025: 150.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising on Tuesday, with buyers managing to hold above the crucial resistance level at 148.50. At the same time, the currency pair reached a two-week low.

Investors are awaiting the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. According to experts, the regulator will keep the interest rate unchanged. However, despite the temporary pause in monetary policy tightening, the market is still pricing in the likelihood of a further rate hike amid rising wages and steady inflation in Tokyo.

Meanwhile, US retail sales in February rose by 0.2% from the previous month, although analysts expected a 0.6% increase. However, this data will unlikely prevent the yen from falling, according to the USDJPY forecast for today.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate is correcting after rebounding from the resistance level. The USDJPY forecast for today expects the quotes to rise to 150.45. Technical indicators confirm the bullish scenario, with the Moving Averages indicating a continued uptrend, and the Stochastic Oscillator breaking above the resistance level. A breakout above the nearest resistance will confirm the bullish momentum, with the price consolidating above 149.80.

Summary

The USDJPY rate is rising despite weak US retail sales data and expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests that bullish momentum will continue, with the potential for growth to 150.45.