USDJPY forecast: the pair returned to around 150.00, with US ADP employment in focus

The USDJPY rate hit this year’s new low of 148.10 yesterday before retracing to 150.00. Market participants are awaiting US ADP labour market statistics today. Discover more in our analysis for 5 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting US employment statistics for February today, with the ADP employment change data scheduled for release
• Current trend: correcting within the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 5 March 2025: 151.00 and 148.10

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate hit a new annual low of 148.10 yesterday. The Japanese yen is in demand as market participants expect the Bank of Japan to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate this year amid an unexpected uptick in inflation in Q4 2024 and positive GDP data.

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) will release US employment statistics for February during the American session today. Stronger-than-expected data (+140 thousand jobs) will support the US dollar and the USDJPY pair may form a local upward reversal. Conversely, weaker-than-forecast figures could push the quotes lower.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY H4 chart shows a steady bearish trend, which is confirmed by the Alligator indicator. The pair is trading in a descending price channel, with the quotes currently correcting from its lower boundary after a false breakout below the 148.60 support level.

The USDJPY forecast for today suggests that the pair could continue to correct towards the 151.00 resistance level if the bulls push the quotes above 150.00. However, if the bears seize the initiative and reverse the quotes downwards, the pair could decline to the low of 148.10.

Summary

The USDJPY pair returned to the area around 150.00 after a false breakout below the 148.60 support level. Today, market participants are awaiting US employment statistics from ADP.