GBPUSD loses ground amid collapse in US consumer expectations

The GBPUSD rate is falling, with sellers holding the 1.2950 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 26 March 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• UK services PMI rose to 52.0 in March
• US Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March
• US Consumer Expectations Index plunged to its lowest level in 12 years
• GBPUSD forecast for 26 March 2025: 1.2805

Fundamental analysis

GBPUSD is declining after a two-day rise. The British pound is supported by an increase in the UK services PMI from 50.2 to 52.0 in March, indicating the fastest expansion in business activity since September last year. The primary growth driver came from strength in the services sector.

Amid improving economic data, traders estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate cut in May at 60%, compared to earlier expectations of a more aggressive easing pace.

Meanwhile, the US Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March, with the Consumer Expectations Index plunging to 72.9, its lowest level in 12 years. A reading below 80 is traditionally viewed as a signal of a possible recession within a year, which, according to the GBPUSD forecast, may strengthen the pound.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The GBPUSD rate is showing a slowdown in the uptrend as prices have broken below the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The pair is now consolidating within a Triangle pattern. Today’s GBPUSD forecast anticipates a drop towards the 1.2805 level. The Stochastic Oscillator supports the bearish scenario as its values are bouncing off the resistance line. The decline will be confirmed by a breakout below the Triangle’s lower boundary, with prices consolidating below 1.2895.

Summary

Improved business activity in the UK supports the British pound. The GBPUSD technical analysis signals a slowdown in the upward trend and suggests a potential decline towards 1.2805 if the 1.2895 support level is broken.