Disclaimer: the information in this article is based on the analysis of reputable financial resources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research, but it should be taken into account that economic changes may significantly affect market conditions, which may lead to changes in forecasts. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making important financial decisions.
The EURUSD pair in the first half of 2024 has been a rollercoaster of volatility, marked by sharp fluctuations within each day as economic uncertainties and central bank policies clash. Geopolitical events and macroeconomic indicators put serious pressure on the pair. What will be the forecast for the EURUSD pair in the coming years?
In this article, we present a detailed forecast EURUSD for 2024, 2025 and 2026, analysing the key factors that will shape its direction. We have combined technical analysis, expert opinions, insights from leading banks and financial institutions, and artificial intelligence (AI) based forecasts. This will allow investors and traders to gain a deep understanding of possible EURUSD price movements in the near future and make informed decisions for successful investments.
Table of contents:
The key elements that have the greatest impact on the EURUSD forecast in 2024 and longer term:
Support:
Resistance:
In 2024, the EURUSD's trajectory will likely be shaped by the Eurozone's economic recovery, the monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, as well as inflationary and geopolitical factors. Forecasts remain uncertain, with a possible range between 1.0650 and 1.1700.
Understanding the key factors that influence the EURUSD exchange rate is critical for accurate currency forecasting. Below are the main factors that will shape the direction of euro to US dollar currency pair in the coming years:
Evaluating and understanding these factors is crucial for analysing future currency movements and creating EUR to USD forecasts. By assessing the pair's movements and key events in 2024, it is clear that these forces will continue to drive the trend for several years ahead.
In 2024, the EURUSD currency pair continues to trade within a narrow range, with the upper boundary at 1.1255 and the lower boundary at 1.0500. Typically, after the price moves out of such a corridor, a new trend can develop, expanding the range. Currently, the exchange rate is near the upper boundary of this prolonged sideways trend, but a strong fundamental shift is needed for it to break out. Let’s look at the factors that could push traders to move the pair beyond this range.
After post-pandemic recovery, moderate economic growth is forecasted in the Eurozone. In 2022, the region’s economy grew by 3.4%, but in 2023, it slowed to just 0.5%. According to the IMF, Eurozone growth is expected to be 0.9% in 2024, increasing to 1.5% in 2025. In contrast, the US economy grew by 3% annually in Q2 2024, while the Eurozone’s GDP increased by only 0.6% over the same period.
Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
Current data suggests the Eurozone economy will grow by 0.2% in Q3, in line with Q2 growth. According to the ECB, the Eurozone’s annual real GDP growth rate will average 0.8% in 2024, reaching 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. However, Germany, the largest economy in Europe, showed stagnation in Q2, and its growth is forecasted at 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
The US Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and interest rates will be a key factor in forecasting EUR/USD. Strong US labour market data has significantly altered market expectations, sharply reducing the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at upcoming meetings. This report has virtually eliminated the possibility of a major rate cut in November, raising questions about whether cuts will happen at all in the near future.
Meanwhile, weak economic growth in the Eurozone and decreasing inflation, which fell below the ECB's 2% target in September, have increased expectations of a potential rate cut at the ECB’s October meeting. This could be the third rate cut this year, adding further pressure on the euro.
As mentioned earlier, inflation has a direct influence on central bank interest rate decisions. The ECB forecasts a temporary rise in inflation in the Eurozone in Q4 2024, followed by a gradual decrease. Inflation is expected to return to the ECB’s 2% target by the end of 2025. Major inflationary drivers include changes in energy and service prices.
Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
In September 2024, consumer prices in the Eurozone rose by only 1.8% year-over-year, marking the first time since June 2021 that inflation fell below the ECB’s target. This drop in inflation could prompt the European regulator to accelerate rate cuts, negatively impacting the euro.
In August 2024, the US trade deficit decreased by 10.8%, reaching 70.4 billion USD. Meanwhile, Germany, the Eurozone's largest economy, saw its foreign trade surplus rise to the highest level since May, reaching 225 billion euros. The widening US trade deficit could weaken the US dollar, while the increasing trade surplus in the Eurozone could support the euro.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, remain a factor that could increase market volatility. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon, for example, could have a significant impact on economic growth and inflation in the Eurozone, especially if pressure on energy prices continues to rise.
Since the onset of the conflict, the price of Brent crude oil and European natural gas increased by approximately 9% and 34%, respectively, at their peak. The World Bank warned in its quarterly report last week that if the conflict escalates, crude oil prices could exceed 150 USD per barrel. As a result, this geopolitical tension could negatively affect the euro.
Let's consider the daily chart of the EURUSD currency pair. As part of the technical analysis of the EURUSD currency pair for 2024, we will assess the location of the nearest support and resistance levels, consider the formation of graphical patterns, as well as analyse technical indicators.
EURUSD quotes broke through the EMA-200 line downwards, which suggests the presence of a downtrend. However, the current support area, which the pair is clinging to, is the lower boundary of the long-term sideways range. The currency pair has been trading in this range since the beginning of 2023. Therefore, there is a high chance of a pullback from 1.0500 and an upside move to 1.0655.
In case of a rebound from the level of 1.0705 downwards, we should consider the continuation of the downward movement and the pair's fall to the level of 1.0425. The bearish impulse can be triggered by a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel. If sellers manage to keep the signal line on the MACD indicator from a breakdown, it will further strengthen the bearish sentiment on the pair.
In case of aggressive pressure from buyers and consolidation of currency pair quotes above the level of 1.0705, which will indicate the breakdown of the upper boundary of the descending channel, we should consider the continuation of growth to the level of 1.0995. With such a development of events, the current decline, which we are observing, should be assessed as a downward correction. The overall growth target could be the upper boundary of the sideways range at 1.1225.
A negative scenario for buyers could be an active pressure from sellers and a price drop under the level of 1.0425. This may indicate a breakout of the lower boundary of the sideways range, in which case the first downside target will be 1.0115. In technical analysis, the breakout of the long-term price corridor, at least pushes the price to the width of this movement or indicates the beginning of a new trend.
The current technical picture on EURUSD indicates high significance of the levels 1.0500, 1.0705 and 1.0425. Their testing will determine the further vector of EURUSD movement. Investors and traders should closely follow the signals of technical indicators and market reaction to key levels.
To develop a longer-term EURUSD forecast, we will examine the weekly chart of the pair. We will apply technical analysis tools, highlight three possible scenarios, and note key levels on the EURUSD weekly chart. This will help assess the potential movements of the pair over a longer time horizon.
Bullish scenario:
One key observation is the formation of a large Triangle pattern, which began on July 16, 2023. This pattern can indicate either a trend reversal or continuation. In this case, the upper boundary of the pattern was broken on August 11, 2024, driven by a more aggressive rate-cutting policy from the Fed, leading to the breakout. The target for the completion of this triangle pattern is the 1.1905 level. However, a downward correction is currently developing, and it is likely that the price will test the upper boundary of the triangle near 1.0875 before resuming its upward movement.
A key confirmation for buyers would be a rebound from the upper boundary of the triangle, followed by a break above the 1.1205 resistance level. A sustained breakout above this resistance would act as a catalyst for further gains toward the 1.1905 mark.
Bearish scenario:
A strong signal for a potential downward move would be a robust US labour market report, which could lead to the Fed maintaining a more restrictive stance on interest rates. If this happens, the pair could reverse from the key resistance level of 1.1205, causing EURUSD to decline.
The first key support for sellers would be the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern. A break below the 1.0875 level could signal a return of prices within the triangle, leading to a decline toward the lower boundary at 1.0705. A breach of this level could trigger a further drop to 1.0435. This scenario is possible if expectations of a slower Fed rate cut and weak Eurozone economic data persist.
Sideways scenario:
The upward trend that started in early 2023 ended, and since then, EURUSD has been moving within a sideways range, with an upper boundary at 1.1225 and a lower boundary at 1.0565. The pair has tested both the upper and lower boundaries of this range. In September 2024, the price rebounded from the upper boundary, and it is likely that the pair could head towards the lower boundary once again.
In this scenario, EUR/USD pair may continue moving within this range for some time, assuming a relative balance in economic data and a general easing of monetary policy by both the Fed and the ECB.
Key support levels:
Key resistance levels:
Forecasts for EURUSD in 2024 from leading financial institutions provide valuable insights for traders and investors who may not have the time for their own analysis. These EURUSD predictions are based on assessments of macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and market sentiment. Below are expert opinions from banks and financial companies regarding possible EURUSD movements in 2024.
In addition to forecasts from financial institutions, AI-based predictions for EUR/USD in 2024 are becoming more prevalent. These models leverage modern forecasting algorithms, historical data, and machine learning methods to create more accurate forecasts. While AI cannot account for sudden events, such as unexpected labour market improvements in the US, it offers a statistically grounded approach to analysing future trends. Below are EUR/USD predictions for 2024 from leading AI platforms, highlighting the growing importance of technology in forecasting. All quotes listed are as of 23 October 2024.
The movement of the EURUSD currency pair over the long term (2025-2026) will continue to be influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. While short-term developments, such as interest rate cuts, may dominate the outlook for 2024, expert forecasts for 2025 and 2026 focus on broader trends. These include economic growth trajectories, inflation control, and shifts in the monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed. Below are long-term forecasts from key financial institutions.
The ECB’s outlook for 2025 and 2026 will largely depend on how well it manages inflation control and supports growth within the Eurozone. If inflation continues to decline, the ECB may shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy by 2025, focusing on economic growth and employment rather than inflation control.
ING’s long-term forecast for EURUSD suggests that the euro may start recovering in 2025 and 2026, as the Eurozone economy stabilises and both the ECB and Fed complete their tightening cycles.
MUFG’s long-term outlook for EURUSD remains bullish, though the euro’s gains are expected to be moderate due to ongoing challenges in Europe, such as demographic changes and the need for structural economic reforms.
Wells Fargo offers a more bearish forecast for EURUSD in 2025-2026. Their analysis suggests that structural problems in both the US and Europe will keep the pair in a narrow range.
Erste Group expresses cautious optimism regarding the long-term prospects of the EURUSD currency pair. The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points had little impact on the exchange rate, as the market had largely anticipated this move. However, pressure on the US dollar is expected to persist as further rate cuts by the Fed are anticipated.
Company / Date | 1Q 2025 | 2Q 2025 | 3Q 2025 | 4Q 2025 | 1Q 2026 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ECB | 1.10 | - | - | - | 1.10 |
ING | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
MUFG | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.16 | - | - |
Wells Fargo | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.06 | 1.04 |
Erste Group | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.15 | - | - |
AI-based models offer a different perspective on long-term forecasts for the EURUSD pair by utilising complex algorithms to analyse historical data, macroeconomic trends, and technical patterns. Although these models are not immune to unpredictable events, they provide data-driven insights into potential movements of the EURUSD pair over 2025-2026. Let's take a closer look at forecasts from well-known AI platforms for the next two years. All quotes listed are as of 23 October 2024.
The AI model from Wallet Investor forecasts a gradual strengthening of the US dollar against the euro in 2025-2026. The prediction is based on assumptions of inflation stabilisation and sustained economic growth in the US.
The Coin Index model offers a more aggressive long-term forecast, predicting that the EURUSD pair will begin to decline sharply as early as 2025, with a steep fall by the end of 2026.
Long Forecast offers a more bullish outlook for EURUSD, with minor corrections, suggesting that the US dollar will maintain its strength due to its status as a global safe-haven currency and the resilience of the US economy. However, in some cases, the dollar may start to lose ground against the euro.
Panda Forecast offers a more optimistic outlook for EURUSD, expecting the euro to strengthen in the long term due to Eurozone economic growth and the Federal Reserve's transition to a more neutral monetary policy.
AI model / Date | 2025 | 2026 |
---|---|---|
Wallet Investor | 1.0520 | 1.0260 |
Coin Index | 0.9768 - 1.0812 | 0.8486 - 0.9788 |
Long Forecast | 1.0880 | 1.1460 |
Panda Forecast | 1.0706 | 1.3000 |
When forecasting EURUSD over several years, it is important to consider various risks and factors that could affect the accuracy of predictions. While expert opinions from leading financial companies and AI models offer valuable insights, unforeseen events can significantly alter the currency pair's direction. Below are key risks and considerations to keep in mind when evaluating the EURUSD outlook for 2024-2026.
The EURUSD currency pair is poised for significant changes from 2024 to 2026, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible. Forecasts from various financial institutions emphasise the critical role of economic policy and inflation expectations in determining EURUSD trends.
Some analysts suggest that the pair will remain in a range between 1.0500 and 1.1000, while others predict a potential rise to 1.1500. Meanwhile, several AI models signal that EUR to USD price could fall below 0.9000 by 2026. However, risks such as geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures may have a significant influence on the pair’s future movements.
In general, EURUSD dynamics will depend on a variety of factors, including central bank actions and overall economic conditions in both the US and the Eurozone.
EUR/USD is expected to rise in 2025. The pair is currently moving in a sideways range between 1.1225 and 1.0565. A break above the upper boundary could signal a potential upward move toward 1.1905, while a break below the lower boundary could lead to a downward trend targeting levels of 1.0200 and 0.9700.
Whether now is a good time to buy or sell EURUSD depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance and market analysis. Traders often evaluate fundamental factors such as interest rate differentials, inflation data and global economic conditions. And technical indicators such as trend lines, moving averages, and sentiment analysis also help determine entry and exit points. It is advisable to consult with a financial expert or rely on your own careful analysis before making trading decisions.
EURUSD forecasts for 2025 vary, reflecting different forecasting approaches. Some AI models, such as those from Trading Economics and Long Forecast, predict a decline in EURUSD to 1.0800 or lower, driven by US dollar strength and global uncertainty. Meanwhile, Panda Forecast and Erste Group predict euro gains to levels between 1.1400 and 1.2400, based on the steady recovery of the Eurozone economy. The consensus suggests a sideways range with fluctuations between 1.06 and 1.14, depending on inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth.
To trade EURUSD, open a trading account or use a demo account for practice. Select the EUR/USD pair, analyse the market using technical and fundamental indicators, and decide whether to buy or sell based on your outlook. Set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage risk. Once you open a position, monitor it closely and adjust as necessary based on market movements.
AI-based predictions for euro to US dollar currency pair are popular due to advancements in machine learning. These models analyse historical data and market trends to generate forecasts, offering valuable insights. However, they are not foolproof and should be used alongside other analysis methods, as they may struggle with unpredictable events like geopolitical crises or policy changes.
News significantly impacts the EURUSD exchange rate. Economic reports like GDP, unemployment, and inflation from the Eurozone and U.S., as well as central bank decisions on interest rates, can cause major price fluctuations. Geopolitical events such as elections or trade deals also affect forecasts. Traders should stay updated on breaking news to adjust strategies.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.