ECB in the crosshairs: what will Luis de Guindos Jurado say and how will it affect EURUSD

ECB Vice President could trigger a rally in the EURUSD rate towards 1.1090. Find out more in our analysis for 8 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos Jurado
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (US): previously at 100.7, projected at 98.9
• EURUSD forecast for 8 April 2025: 1.1090 and 1.0915

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 8 April 2025 considers that ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will deliver his closing speech at the annual meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid. His remarks are the second most market-impacting among ECB policymakers.

Although no official transcript is expected, the event will be streamed live. Given de Guindos’ recent comments about the need to be extremely cautious in determining monetary policy in an uncertain environment, his speech today may offer fresh clues about future ECB monetary moves.

Meanwhile, according to the forecast for 8 April 2025, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US may fall to 98.9 from the previous 100.7. Though not a major driver, the data could affect the EURUSD forecast for today.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, it continues its upward trajectory following the signal received. Remaining within the ascending channel, the pair will likely continue to rise towards the 1.1090 resistance level. A breakout above this level would open the way for further upward movement.

That said, the EURUSD rate could correct towards 1.0915 and gain its upward momentum after testing the support level.

Summary

Today’s speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos could offer the market fresh insight into the central bank’s monetary policy outlook, potentially increasing volatility in the EURUSD pair. The EURUSD technical analysis suggests a likely continuation of the uptrend after a correction.