EURUSD remains under pressure despite weakness in the US economy

The EURUSD rate is declining as buyers cannot surpass the 1.0515 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 27 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US new home sales fell to a three-month low in January 2025
• Markets price in two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025
• Investors await the second US GDP growth estimate for Q4 2024
• EURUSD forecast for 27 February 2025: 1.0365

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is down slightly for the second consecutive trading session. The pair remains under pressure despite signs of weakness in the US economy, which have already caused markets to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The US dollar was also impacted by US new home sales data. The indicator decreased by 10.5% to 657 thousand year-on-year in January, reaching a three-month low. This was due to persistently high mortgage rates, which restrained housing demand.

Investors are now focused on key US economic data. The second GDP growth estimate for Q4 2024 is scheduled for release today, with the PCE price index report due tomorrow.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to plunge after rebounding from the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a decline to 1.0365. An additional signal in favour of the decline is the formation of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern on the Stochastic Oscillator, increasing the likelihood of the bearish scenario.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure despite signs of weakness in the US economy. The EURUSD technical analysis shows that the price will highly likely fall to 1.0365 amid a rebound from the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and the formation of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.