EURUSD: the pair continues to correct after a decline

The EURUSD pair may continue its corrective wave towards 1.0464, influenced by US economic indicators. Find out more in our analysis for 23 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Spain’s Q3 GDP: previously at 0.8%, projected at 0.8%
• US durable goods orders: previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.2%
• EURUSD forecast for 23 December 2024: 1.0464 and 1.0349

Fundamental analysis

GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country. It only includes final products and excludes the costs of raw materials.

The forecast for 23 December 2024 appears somewhat optimistic and suggests that Spain’s GDP may remain unchanged at 0.8%. Given that the indicator has remained in a similar range in previous quarters, the actual reading for the last quarter may also stay steady.

A GDP showing similar values each quarter can be viewed both positively (indicating stable production and a steady economy) and negatively (suggesting stagnation in industrial development). If Spain’s GDP remains at the same level again, its impact on the EURUSD rate will depend on which of the above scenarios the market interprets the data as reflecting.

US durable goods include motor vehicles, machinery, and equipment with more than three years of useful life. The fundamental analysis for 23 December 2024 suggests that US durable goods orders may stay steady at 0.2%. If the actual reading matches the forecast, this will be considered neutral for the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

The price formed a harami reversal pattern on the EURUSD H4 chart after testing the Bollinger lower band. It continues its upward movement following the reversal pattern signal at this stage. A corrective wave is expected to develop since the quotes remain within the descending channel.

The pullback target could be the 1.0464 resistance level. A rebound from this level would strengthen the downtrend.

However, the price might return to 1.0349 before continuing the downtrend without testing the resistance level.

Summary

Coupled with technical EURUSD analysis for 23 December 2024, weak US economic indicators suggest that the EURUSD pair could continue to correct before resuming its decline.