AUDUSD rose to a ten-week high but the rally is not complete

The AUDUSD pair appears overpriced. The market believes the RBA will not lower interest rates rapidly. Discover more in our analysis for 21 February 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair soared to a two-month high
• Investors believe the RBA will not cut interest rates too quickly
• AUDUSD forecast for 21 February 2025: 0.6408 and 0.6420

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate climbed to the ten-week high of 0.6394.

Investors are analysing Australia’s data, which supports the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not reduce borrowing costs too quickly.

As February statistics confirmed, Australia’s private sector has been growing for five consecutive months, with the services sector and the manufacturing industry showing outpacing rates. Employment in January rose more actively than in December, indicating that the labour market remains resilient, which is a good signal.

Earlier this week, the RBA lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, as expected.

The regulator’s further plans look very cautious: it is concerned that the decline in inflation may be in question. Due to this, the RBA could pause the series of rate cuts.

The AUDUSD forecast appears positive.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair still has grounds to climb to 0.6408. If the market secures above this level, the next upside target could be 0.6420.

Summary

The AUDUSD pair rose and hit a two-month high amid expectations of the RBA keeping relatively high interest rates. The AUDUSD forecast for today, 21 February 2025, confirms that the pair could strengthen further, with the target for buyers at 0.6420.