Gold (XAUUSD) forecast: pressure on the US dollar persists

The decline in US economic indicators has an additional impact on XAUUSD quotes, pushing them closer to 2,950 USD. Find more details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 5 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 183 thousand, projected at 141 thousand
• US services PMI: previously at 52.9, projected at 49.7
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 March 2025: 2,893 and 2,950

Fundamental analysis

The US nonfarm employment change statistics are a report from ADP (Automated Data Processing), which tracks changes in nonfarm jobs based on data from about 400 thousand business sources. The report is published two days before official US employment data. The reading is currently projected at 141 thousand. If the actual data aligns with expectations, the market may see increased volatility. Conversely, worse-than-forecast data may weaken the USD against Gold.

The US services PMI is projected to decline to 49.7. A worse-than-expected PMI may further weaken the US dollar.

The XAUUSD price forecast for 5 March appears rather optimistic, with the quotes likely to maintain their upward trajectory and reach 2,950 USD.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, they continue their upward momentum following the signal from the pattern. Since XAUUSD prices remain within the ascending channel, the uptrend will likely continue, with an upside target at the 2,950 USD resistance level.

However, the XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests another scenario, where quotes correct to 2,893 USD before continuing their upward trajectory.

After testing the resistance level, XAUUSD prices could hit a new all-time high in the near term and head towards 3,000 USD.

Summary

Technical analysis confirms the XAUUSD forecast for today, 5 March 2025, suggesting a price rise to 2,950 USD. The decrease in the US PMI could be an additional trigger for the weakening of the US dollar.