Gold (XAUUSD) rises ahead of crucial US labour market data

XAUUSD prices are rising after rebounding from the support level, with the quotes currently at 2,863 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 7 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• XAUUSD quotes are rising for the sixth consecutive week amid increased demand for Gold
• Increased buying is driven by concerns caused by trade uncertainty and the release of the US employment report
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 February 2025: 2,885 and 2,915

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have been rising for the sixth consecutive week as demand for Gold has increased amid the current trade uncertainty. Investors are actively buying up the precious metal ahead of the crucial US employment report. According to traders, Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with analysts revising their forecasts upwards, expecting sustainable growth amid US political hyperactivity and massive hedging by global central banks and investors.

Markets are now focused on the US employment data, which may provide insight into the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. An economy with full employment, steady growth, and easing inflation will allow the Fed to continue its rate-cutting cycle. Markets expect the regulator to lower the rate by another 100 basis points in the process. This will inevitably lead to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a cheaper cost of owning Gold.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H1 chart, XAUUSD quotes continue to move within the ascending channel, which has remained relevant for several weeks. After the bearish correction was complete, the buyers firmly secured above the upper boundary of the descending channel but have yet to break above the crucial 2,870 USD resistance level.

The key support level formed at the channel’s lower boundary at 2,850 USD, from which prices are likely to rebound upwards. This level is also confirmed by the proximity of the EMA-65 line. According to today’s XAUUSD forecast, the upside targets after a rebound from the lower boundary of the long-term bullish channel could be 2,885 and 2,915 USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator also indicates a reversal. Its values declined after testing the overbought level, and the %K and %D lines crossed from bottom to top, signalling a potential recovery of the upward momentum. If this signal is confirmed, prices are expected to rise to the channel’s upper boundary at 2,915 USD. To achieve this, the buyers need to gain a foothold above the nearest resistance level at 2,870 USD.

An alternative scenario is possible if prices break below the support level and consolidate below 2,845 USD. Such price behaviour will indicate the overcoming of the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel and could signal a deeper bearish correction towards 2,830 USD.

Summary

Gold remains in a stable uptrend amid expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and rising demand from investors. A fall in US bond yields may drive up Gold prices in the near term. The XAUUSD price forecast suggests further growth, which is possible if the quotes decisively break above the 2,870 USD resistance level and advance to the targets of 2,885 and 2,915 USD. However, a breakout below the 2,845 USD support level may change the dynamics, signalling the beginning of a bearish correction towards 2,830 USD.