On 5 February, Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) reported its Q4 2024 results, posting a 5% revenue increase and a profit of 1.8 billion USD compared to the previous year’s loss. However, the share price fell by 7.5% following the report’s release, as investors were discouraged by the 2025 outlook, which indicated a potential decline in profitability.
This article examines Ford Motor Company’s business and revenue streams, presents its quarterly reports, and conducts a fundamental analysis of the F-listed asset. It also includes expert forecasts for Ford’s stock for 2025 and analyses Ford’s stock performance, forming the basis for Ford Motor Company’s stock forecast for 2025.
Ford Motor Company was founded by Henry Ford in 1903 in the US. The company’s primary business activities involve designing, manufacturing, and marketing a wide range of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, SUVs, and commercial vehicles. Additionally, Ford is actively involved in the financial sector through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company, which offers car buyers leasing, lending, and other financial products.
The IPO occurred in 1956, making Ford the first automaker whose shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the F ticker symbol. This opened up new opportunities for investors and facilitated the company’s continued growth and development.
Today, Ford continues to innovate in the automotive industry, focusing on electric vehicles and autonomous technologies while improving the environmental performance of its products in response to evolving market demands and existing trends.
Ford divides its operations into key divisions and publishes financial results for each, except Ford Next, which has not yet generated income. Below are Ford’s main divisions and business areas:
Ford released the Q2 2024 financial results on 4 July 2024. Below are the report’s financial indicators:
The report shows that revenue growth was primarily driven by the Ford Pro division, which saw a 9% increase and achieved the highest margins compared to other divisions. Ford ranked second in US electric vehicle sales, behind Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), outperforming GM with 21,930 vehicles sold. However, unlike Tesla, Ford’s electric cars are not yet profitable, as reflected by the Ford E division’s loss of 1.1 billion USD. Consequently, Ford’s management decided to reduce production of the F-150 Lightning pickup truck and postpone 12.0 billion USD in electric vehicle development investments. Instead, the company is focusing on compact electric vehicles with higher margins. In this segment, Ford plans to compete with Tesla and the Chinese company BYD, which sells low-cost electric cars.
On 29 October 2024, Ford released its financial results for Q3 2024. Below are the report’s key financial indicators:
The report data shows that the company continues to face challenges with electric vehicle margins. Despite growth in EV sales, this segment remains unprofitable and requires ongoing investment, which has negatively affected net income, resulting in a 25% decline. However, the Ford Blue and Pro segments, which focus on internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and serve the commercial sector with after-sales service, are helping to mitigate these challenges. Ford Credit is another crucial division that supports the company during difficult times.
Ford delivered its Q4 2024 financial results on 5 February 2025. Below are the report’s financial indicators:
The report reaffirmed that Ford continues to face challenges with electric vehicle margins, with the Ford E segment remaining unprofitable. However, the traditional business of selling internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continues to provide support.
Investors reacted negatively to the report, causing the stock price to drop by 7.5% after its release. The losses in the Ford E division were not a factor, as market participants have already accounted for its weak financial performance. Instead, concerns centred on the company’s 2025 outlook. Despite revenue growth to 48.2 billion USD and net income of 1.8 billion USD, Ford warned of a potential decline in adjusted EBIT to 7.0-8.5 billion USD in 2025, down from the 2024 figure of 10.2 billion USD. Another key concern was the possibility of a 25% import tariff on cars from Mexico and Canada, which could adversely affect Ford’s financial results, given the company’s reliance on Mexican plants for low-cost production.
On the monthly timeframe, Ford stock has been trading between 9 and 14 USD since June 2022. Following the quarterly earnings release, the quotes headed downward, and the 9 USD support level is being tested. Based on Ford Motor Company’s stock performance, the possible price movements for 2025 are as follows.
The primary forecast for Ford Motor Company’s stock suggests a breakout below the 9 USD support level, leading to a decline to 5 USD. This scenario is considered the most likely due to weak 2025 guidance. A similar situation recently occurred with Tesla shares, where the quotes broke below the support level and continued to fall.
The alternative forecast for Ford Motor Company’s stock predicts a rebound from the 9 USD support level, followed by a rise to the range’s upper boundary at 14 USD. The quotes may continue trading between 9 USD and 14 USD in 2025 until the company resolves its EV profitability issue.
Ford Motor Company’s stock analysis and forecast for 2025Investing in Ford Motor Company’s shares involves certain risks that must be considered. Below are the key ones:
The automotive industry is transitioning from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, and Ford is no exception. The company is refocusing on electric cars and hybrids, and its revenues also include related services and software sales. This multi-faceted approach could position Ford as a versatile player in the market, capable of meeting diverse consumer needs. However, the success of this strategy will largely depend on Ford’s ability to scale up electric vehicle production while ensuring its profitability, which is already a significant challenge.
If Ford can successfully manage the transition to electric vehicles and use its brand alongside innovations in software and services, it could emerge as a more robust and diversified car company. However, there is a risk that the EV segment may not become profitable in the near term, potentially leading to financial pressure or necessitating a strategic shift.
The market’s reaction to the release of the quarterly earnings report suggests that investors are sceptical about the company’s plans and question their full implementation.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.