Crash or opportunity? IMF meeting and falling LEI weigh on USDJPY

The IMF meeting and weak US LEI data may spark a correction in USDJPY before a potential drop to the 140.00 level. Full forecast for 21 April 2025 below.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• IMF Spring Meetings begin today
• US Leading Economic Index (LEI): previous – -0.3%, forecast – -0.5%
• USDJPY forecast for 21 April 2025: 140.00 and 141.50

Fundamental analysis

As of 21 April 2025, markets are focused on the start of the IMF Spring Meetings. Amid persistent global headwinds — including high inflation, geopolitical risks, and sluggish growth in major economies — this event may deliver crucial policy statements regarding global financial stability, support for developing economies, and central banks’ future strategies.

In parallel, attention is on the US Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of 10 indicators designed to forecast turning points in the economic cycle. It includes metrics like jobless claims, new orders, and consumer expectations.

A further decline in LEI to -0.5%, as forecasted, would reinforce fears of a slowing US economy or even a looming recession — potentially undermining the dollar and bolstering safe-haven demand for the yen.

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY remains fragile, with downside pressure likely to persist.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USDJPY recently tested the lower Bollinger Band and formed a Hammer reversal pattern. This setup suggests a potential short-term corrective move. The pair has broken below the lower boundary of its descending channel, indicating that any rebound may be limited before the broader downtrend resumes.

A corrective wave could push prices up to 141.50. However, if sellers maintain control, USDJPY may fall directly toward 140.00 without testing that resistance level.

Summary

The IMF meeting and further deterioration in the US Leading Economic Index may increase volatility in USDJPY. While a brief correction toward 141.50 is possible, technical signals point to a continuation of the bearish trend, with 140.00 as the key downside target. Today’s forecast for 21 April 2025 anticipates cautious trading with a bearish bias.