Bearish momentum in USDJPY weakens, traders anticipate a rebound

The USDJPY rate is correcting, but sellers are keeping the pair below the 144.45 resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 11 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Markets view easing US inflation as a sign the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates
• Traders are watching the progress of US-Japan trade talks
• A rebound from the lower boundary of an Expanding Triangle indicates a potential bullish correction
• USDJPY forecast for 11 April 2025: 145.70

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is down for the second consecutive day. Sellers have confidently pushed the price below the key support level at 144.45, which had remained intact for six straight sessions. The Japanese yen is strengthening amid growing concerns about the US economy, weakening the US dollar and boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

In March, US consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in February and below the forecast of 2.6%. Markets interpreted this as a signal that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, pushing the USDJPY pair lower.

Traders are also monitoring ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan. Tokyo currently operates under a 10% US tariff and is seeking more favourable terms.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate is undergoing a minor correction following a sharp decline. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a rebound from the lower boundary of an Expanding Triangle pattern, followed by growth to 145.70.

The Stochastic Oscillator also indicates a high probability of an upward correction, with its readings in the oversold area and signalling a possible reversal. This scenario will be confirmed by a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, with the price consolidating above 144.35.

Summary

The current USDJPY decline is due to US economic concerns and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut amid easing inflation. However, the USDJPY technical analysis points to a potential bullish correction, with a target at 145.70.