USDJPY forecast: the US dollar recoups losses after a collapse due to the Fed meeting

The USDJPY rate is undergoing an upward correction, rising above 149.00 after the release of Japanese inflation data. Find more details in our analysis for 21 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s consumer inflation eased to 3.0% in February
• Current trend: correcting within the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 21 March 2025: 150.00 and 149.00

Fundamental analysis

Japanese inflation data released today showed a fall in February, with the national CPI down by 0.1% month-on-month and up 3.7% year-on-year. The national core CPI rose by 3.0% from 3.2% in January.

The USDJPY pair has responded to inflation statistics with growth and is now rushing back to the 150.00 level, where it started to decline to 148.00 on Wednesday. This came after the Federal Reserve announced its meeting results, where it reiterated its plans for two more rate cuts this year.

Earlier this week, the Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, as expected. The regulator maintained a cautious stance, deciding to assess the impact of global economic risks on the Japanese economy more carefully.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair is trading in a descending price channel on the H4 chart, with the quotes currently undergoing a local upward correction after rebounding from its lower boundary. The key resistance level is the range between 150.00 and 150.15.

The USDJPY forecast for today suggests that the pair could continue to correct towards the 150.00-150.15 resistance area if the bulls hold above the 149.00 level. However, if the bears seize the initiative and reverse the quotes downwards, the pair could return to the 148.10 support level.

Summary

The USDJPY rate is rising following the release of the Japanese inflation statistics for February, which showed a decrease in its rate. An upward reversal of the trend is possible if the bulls push the price above the 150.00-150.15 resistance area.