USDJPY declines, with the BoJ policy bolstering the yen

The USDJPY pair is slightly edging down, with the price currently at 148.89. Discover more in our analysis for 6 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• BoJ Deputy Governor said that the process of withdrawal from the monetary easing program is just beginning
• Expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike support the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 6 March 2025: 146.30

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate remains under pressure, but buyers defended the key support level at 148.55. The weakening of the US dollar caused by the consequences of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy continues to restrain the pair’s growth.

The yen receives additional support from expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida noted that monetary conditions remain favourable, and the process of withdrawal from the easing program is just beginning.

Meanwhile, US private companies hired only 77 thousand employees in February 2025, the smallest gain in seven months. In January, the revised figure was 186 thousand. Experts attribute the low hiring rate to political uncertainty and lower consumer spending.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate continues to move within a descending channel. The price is consolidating in a Triangle pattern, signalling a potential near-term breakout below the key support level at 148.55. The USDJPY forecast for today expects the price to decline to 146.30 after retesting the pattern’s upper boundary. Technical indicators confirm the bearish scenario as the price remains below the EMA-65, indicating the predominance of sellers, and the Stochastic Oscillator is bouncing off the resistance line, increasing the likelihood of further weakening of the USDJPY pair.

Summary

The USDJPY rate remains under pressure due to a weaker US dollar and expectations of a BoJ rate hike, while low US job growth adds to market uncertainty. The USDJPY technical analysis confirms the downtrend, with a breakout below the 148.55 level likely to pave the way for a decline to 146.30.