EURUSD surges above 1.1500 — can the rally continue?

EURUSD has broken above the 1.1500 mark amid a strong uptrend. European equity markets are closed today. Full outlook for 21 April 2025 below.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: public holiday in Europe
• Current trend: strong bullish momentum
• EURUSD forecast for 21 April 2025: 1.1500 and 1.1600

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD continues to climb rapidly, driven by weakness in the US dollar. The greenback came under pressure after reports surfaced that the White House is exploring legal grounds to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. President Donald Trump has reportedly voiced frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates.

This development has intensified market concerns about political interference in central bank independence, compounding existing unease over trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s broader economic agenda.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also warned over the weekend that new tariffs could drag on US economic growth — further fuelling demand for the euro and safe alternatives to the dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is firmly within a rising price channel. The Alligator indicator confirms the uptrend, and the breakout above 1.1500 signals continued bullish strength.

As long as bulls hold the price above 1.1500, a move toward 1.1600 is likely in the near term. However, if bears manage to push the pair back below 1.1500, a short-term correction toward 1.1400 could develop.

Summary

EURUSD has broken through 1.1500 on growing concerns over Fed independence and mounting political instability in the US. Today’s forecast suggests further upside is possible, with 1.1600 as the next key target — provided bulls defend the 1.1500 support zone.