US consumer confidence collapses, EURUSD is set for a leap

The EURUSD pair is correcting, with the price currently at 1.0877. Find more details in our analysis for 17 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since November 2022
• US retail sales data is in the spotlight today
• EURUSD forecast for 17 March 2025: 1.1035

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining slightly on Monday. However, the US dollar remains under pressure due to trade uncertainty and growing concerns about the US economy.

Friday’s data showed a decline in US consumer confidence and a sharp increase in inflation expectations. The consumer confidence index fell to 57.9 points in March from 64.7 in February, reaching its lowest level since November 2022.

Investors are now focused on the release of US retail sales data, which is due today and will provide information on consumer spending. The key event of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, where the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is moving within a symmetrical Triangle pattern. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a breakout above the pattern’s upper boundary and growth to 1.1035. Technical indicators confirm a bullish scenario, with the Moving Averages indicating a continued uptrend, and the Stochastic Oscillator rebounding from the trendline. The bullish momentum will be confirmed by a breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, with the price consolidating above 1.0915.

Summary

The EURUSD rate remains stable amid weak US macroeconomic indicators. The EURUSD technical analysis indicates a potential breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary, which will open the way to the 1.1035 level.