EURUSD is in a strong position thanks to Trump and Germany’s policies

The EURUSD pair is on the rise near 1.0900, but it may halt its growth due to the US statistics. Find out more in our analysis for 12 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair rose and reached new local highs
• Investors view the German approach to fiscal policy as support for the euro and are also concerned about the impact of Trump’s tariff policy
• EURUSD forecast for 12 March 2025: 1.0947

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0897.

The price touched the 1.0930 level yesterday, the highest level since Donald Trump’s election as US President. This is due to strong market fears about a Trump recession. The stock exchanges are seriously looking at the possibility of a worsening US economic situation due to Trump’s tariff policies towards the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico.

The euro is supported by the rejection of Trump-related tariff deals, changes in the German fiscal policy, and the European Central Bank's cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

At the same time, rather weak US economic data is working against the US dollar. Today, the market will follow the latest US headline and core inflation reports for February.

The EURUSD forecast is positive.

EURUSD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that the EURUSD pair maintains its positive momentum, with the price likely to retest the 1.0947 level in the short term.

If the price consolidates higher, the new buying target will be 1.0955, with the local support level at 1.0820.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is poised for further growth if there are new triggers. The price will remain in a strong position as long as external market threats are relevant. The EURUSD forecast for today, 12 March 2025, expects the buying wave to extend to 1.0947.