AUDUSD remains under pressure despite improvements in the Australian economy

The AUDUSD pair is strengthening, with the price currently at 0.6292. Discover more in our analysis for 14 March 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The RBA reiterated a cautious approach to monetary policy, without signalling rate cuts
• Australian inflation expectations declined to 3.6% in March
• AUDUSD forecast for 14 March 2025: 0.6235

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate has been consolidating between 0.6330 and 0.6265 since the beginning of the week. Today, the currency pair is rising but remains under pressure after the US imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Despite trade risks, the Australian Prime Minister ruled out retaliatory measures, saying that the government will continue to seek exemptions.

Meanwhile, Australia’s Q4 GDP exceeded forecasts, accelerating for the first time in more than a year. Against this backdrop, the RBA reiterated a cautious approach to monetary policy in its latest minutes, without signalling further rate cuts. Australian inflation expectations fell to 3.6% in March from 4.6% in February, indicating easing price pressures.

The AUDUSD forecast for today suggests that positive economic data from Australia could restrain a further price decline.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair remains under pressure, with a Triangle pattern currently forming. The AUDUSD forecast suggests a rebound from the 0.6310 resistance level, followed by a decline to 0.6235.

Technical indicators confirm the bearish scenario, with the intersection of the EMA lines signalling a downtrend and the Stochastic Oscillator remaining below the trendline, indicating a potential decline. A breakout below the Triangle’s lower boundary will confirm a bearish movement, with the price consolidating below 0.6265.

Summary

The AUDUSD rate remains under pressure due to trade risks and the Federal Reserve’s policy despite strong Australian economic data. The AUDUSD technical analysis indicates the potential for a bearish scenario, with a breakout below the 0.6265 level building up a downward momentum towards 0.6235.