Gold (XAUUSD) continues to correct, plunging below 2,860 USD

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a downward correction, dipping to 2,860 USD. Market participants are awaiting US inflation statistics today. Find more details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 28 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US consumer inflation data is due today – the PCE price index
• Current trend: a downward correction
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 February 2025: 2,833 and 2,870

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices went into a downward correction after setting an all-time high of 2,956 USD. Gold prices are now under pressure from a stronger US dollar and the talks on a peaceful agreement to resolve the military conflict in Ukraine.

During the American trading session today, market participants will focus on the US inflation data for January, with the PCE price index scheduled for release. The figure is expected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.

The Federal Reserve takes into account inflation data when deciding on interest rate changes. Weaker-than-forecast statistics will put pressure on the USD and help Gold strengthen. Conversely, stronger-than-expected growth will support the US dollar, potentially pushing XAUUSD quotes lower.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Gold broke below the previously formed ascending channel. The XAUUSD pair tumbled to 2,960 USD today as part of the current correction. There is a strong downward momentum in the price movement, with no signs of an upward reversal yet and the asset likely to continue to decline in the near term.

The short-term XAUUSD price forecast suggests that the pair could rise to 2,900 USD if the bulls seize the initiative and push the quotes above the 2,870 USD resistance level. However, the downward correction could continue if the bears gain a foothold below 2,860 USD.

Summary

Gold has declined to the price area around 2,860 USD as part of the current downward correction. The market will focus on US inflation statistics today.