Gold (XAUUSD): the precious metal may strengthen against the US dollar

Having completed a correction, XAUUSD quotes may continue to rise to 2,940 USD amid weak US economic data. Find more details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 27 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US GDP: previously at 3.1%, projected at 2.3%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 219 thousand, projected at 222 thousand
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 February 2025: 2,940 and 2,880

Fundamental analysis

GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country; it applies only to final products and does not include the cost of raw materials.

The XAUUSD forecast for 27 February 2025 appears rather optimistic for Gold, suggesting a decrease in US GDP to 2.3% from 3.1% in the previous quarter. At this stage, a decline in GDP could weaken the USD.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous reading was 219 thousand, so the XAUUSD analysis for today does not add to positive sentiment, expecting jobless claims to increase to 222 thousand. While the change is insignificant, the release of data that aligns with expectations or exceeds them may adversely impact the XAUUSD quotes.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, they could rise following the signal from the pattern. The uptrend will likely continue as the XAUUSD quotes are hovering in the ascending channel.

The upside target could be the 2,940 USD resistance level.

However, the XAUUSD technical analysis for today suggests another scenario, where prices correct to 2,880 USD.

After testing the resistance level, XAUUSD prices could reach an all-time high in the short term and head towards 3,000 USD.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for today, 27 February 2025, is confirmed by technical analysis, which suggests growth to 2,940 USD. The decline in US GDP may act as an additional trigger for the weakening of the US dollar.